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Title Dynamical linkage of ecological and economic models of Namibian commercial rangelands: assessing land use impacts and identifying sustainable land use strategies

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Short title Linking ecological and economic models

Author(s) Lohmann, D.(1); Blaum, N.(1); Domptail, S.(2); Popp, A.(3); Rossmanith, E.(1); Jeltsch, F.(1)

Presenting author Lohmann, D.

Institution(s) (1) Plant Ecology and Nature Conservation, University of Potsdam; (2) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research; (3) Environmental and agricultural policy, Justus-Liebig-University, Giessen

Keywords Land-use; ecological-economic modelling; savannah model; sustainability; rangeland management

Abstract The dynamics of savannah vegetation are often very complex, mainly driven by highly variable and unpredictable precipitation. Land-users have to face these complex dynamics and need to adapt adequately to changes in precipitation to prevent severe and irreversible degradation of the vegetation and a loss of productivity. In order to provide optimal management strategies to avoid land use induced losses of biodiversity and ecosystem service we need to understand the feedbacks between the ecological and the economic system and the dynamics of the coupled systems. In this study we implemented an ecological-economic modeling framework that allows us to dynamically link already established rule-based ecological models to a rule- and agent-based economic model of commercial livestock farms in southern Namibia. We focused on a modeling approach for the economic model that is in-line with the existing ecological model to be able to dynamically link both models in a bidirectional way. This approach allows us to be spatially explicit regarding range management from local to regional scale and to analyze the feedbacks between the two models across scales. This framework is then used to identify sustainable land-use strategies as well as useful ecological criteria for adaptation of range management for southern Namibian dwarf shrub savannahs – also with regard to different climate change scenarios.

Congress Topic Process Analysis

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