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Title Mechanistic distribution models for Fynbos Proteaceae and their use for conservation management

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Short title Mechanistic distribution models for Proteaceae

Author(s) Cabral, J.S.; Schurr, F.

Presenting author Cabral, J.S.

Institution(s) Plant Ecology and Nature Conservation, Institute of Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany

Keywords Range dynamics of plant species; Mechanistic models; Cape Proteaceae; land use; flower harvesting

Abstract We present mechanistic models for the range dynamics of Fynbos Proteaceae that incorporate key ecological processes such as local population dynamics and dispersal. By statistically fitting these models to distribution and abundance data, we estimate unknown model parameters and by fitting alternative models, we test hypotheses about the relevance of different processes for range dynamics, like Allee effects and chaotic behaviour. The best model is then used to predict the range dynamics of Fynbos Proteaceae, and to assess the consequences of habitat turnover and flower harvesting for the future persistence of these species, with and without climate change.

Congress Topic Process Analysis

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Ref. No. 579